NEW ECONOMIC OBSTACLES EMERGE AS 2025 WINDS DOWN

As the end of 2025 draws closer, the global economic landscape presents a complex picture of divergent growth paths, persistent policy uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics.

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The International Monetary Fund projects global growth of just 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, a marked slowdown from the 3.3% recorded in 2024, with risks remaining tilted to the downside.

This deceleration reflects several headwinds including: elevated policy uncertainty; trade tensions, particularly between the US and China; and persistent inflationary pressure in some regions.

While the forecast for the US has been revised upward, the overall global picture remains below the historical 2000-2019 average of 3.7%.

The most significant development affecting global markets has been China’s economic slowdown, with GDP growing just 4.8% in the third quarter of 2025, the weakest pace in a year.

More concerning, fixed-asset investment in China contracted 0.5% in the first nine months of the year, marking a rare and alarming drop that reflects declining confidence in growth prospects as the country grapples with ongoing real estate slumps and trade friction with the US.

RISK IN THAILAND

Thailand faces its own set of formidable challenges as we close out 2025. The Thai economy appears headed for a more severe slowdown in the fourth quarter, potentially extending into the first half of 2026, with growth expanding by less than 1% over the next four quarters, resulting in full-year GDP growth of only 1.8% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.

Two major risks require urgent management from the new government of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.