Exporters face another tough year

Thai exports are expected to struggle in 2026 thanks to a slowing global economy, rising trade protectionism, and increasingly volatile geopolitics, writes Phusadee Arunmas

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Containers are stacked at a Port Authority of Thailand site. Mr Dhanakorn says shipments this year will be gradual and uneven, rather than a clear upward trend, given the fragile global economy.

Thailand's exports in 2026 are expected to face volatility and challenges due to a global economic slowdown that is dampening demand in key trading nations.

High household debt will curb purchasing power, while a sluggish recovery in the global labour market, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising trade protectionism will continue to influence this sector, noted the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC).

Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan, chairman of TNSC, said shipments this year will be gradual and uneven, rather than a clear upward trend, because of the fragility of the global economy.

The structure of international trade is shifting, moving from a focus on cost efficiency to greater emphasis on supply chain security, sustainability, and compliance with updated trade regulations, he said.

Export growth is likely to vary across different markets and product categories. Exporters who can quickly adapt, maintain credibility, and comply with environmental and labour standards are expected to gain a competitive advantage, said Mr Dhanakorn.

Key risks include the sluggish recovery of major trading partners, particularly the US and Europe, as well as geopolitical situations affecting shipping routes and logistics costs. Additional challenges arise from fierce competition from countries with lower production costs, exchange rate fluctuations impacting profitability, and emerging trade barriers, especially those related to environmental and carbon regulations.