Can 'Land Bridge' ignite growth?

Thailand has long struggled to escape the middle-income trap. Despite its strategic location at the heart of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), the country continues to trail regional peers in GDP growth, capital market performance, and infrastructure competitiveness.

- DAI KADOMAE

Political instability has only worsened this challenge. Amid weak domestic consumption and external trade pressures, the government has turned to massive infrastructure development as a key stimulus measure. Central to this push is the controversial "Land Bridge Project", positioned as a transformative logistics corridor linking the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. But is this project a game changer—or another overpromised, under-delivered megaproject?

Across Southeast Asia, infrastructure development has become a popular lever for economic revitalisation, not only to boost short-term employment but to reposition countries within regional supply chains. Thailand’s strategic vision is no exception, but execution challenges remain formidable.

Still in the feasibility stage, the project involves two deep-sea ports (Chumphon and Ranong), a 90-kilometre transport corridor with road, rail, and pipelines, and a target capacity of 40 million TEUs per year. While the project is expected to cost 1.1 trillion baht (US$28 billion), it could reduce shipping costs by 15% and delivery time by four days, offering a detour from the Strait of Malacca.

The government forecasts an economic IRR of 17.4% and job creation of 280,000 positions if this infrastructure project succeeds. In early 2024, parliament approved advancing the feasibility study with bipartisan support. However, the response has been cautious, reflecting both specific and systemic concerns.