The Risk Report

THE ELECTORAL DEFEAT OF PRIME Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary in April reminded the world that despite having rewritten the rules of the political game in his own favor, a strongman can lose, even in an unfree and unfair election.

- By Ian Bremmer

Turkey's President Erdogan in Ankara on June 1

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has defied political gravity for even longer than Orban, with a heavy-handed resourcefulness few other political leaders can match. After 23 years in power, he still has tricks up his sleeve: last month a Turkish court weakened the main opposition party by replacing its effective and charismatic leader with a former chairman famous for losing elections against Erdogan. Will it be enough to further extend his tenure?

For decades, Turkey’s leaders, both civilian and military, adhered to the secular model of politics championed by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who forged the Turkish republic from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. Power rested with nationalist, militantly secular elites in Turkey’s largest cities. But in 2002 Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), supported by socioeconomically marginalized and observant Turkish Muslims, brought the country’s Anatolian heartland to the center of Turkey’s politics.