The Risk Report

THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN Poland delivered the latest anti-incumbent surprise in what has been a tough period for establishment candidates the world over. The right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, a historian with no political experience, won a narrow victory in a June 1 runoff vote over a candidate aligned with the centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his plans for closer European integration. Nawrocki will take office on Aug. 6. Tusk must now buckle up for a bumpy ride.

- By Ian Bremmer

With a presidential veto, Nawrocki will halt Tusk’s bid to liberalize abortion law and to overhaul a court system packed with judges politically aligned with the previous far-right government led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), a change demanded by the European Union. But Nawrocki won't just block Tusk’s reform plans. He’ll also work to exploit potential divisions within Tusk’s four-party governing coalition, particularly among lawmakers in the conservative Polish People’s Party, still the weakest link in Tusk’s alliance.

In fact, the 1-point presidential-election loss for his ally Rafal Trzaskowski leaves Prime Minister Tusk as a lame duck, and it underlines the growing frustration of many Poles with a rising cost of living and the now long-term presence of up to 2.5 million Ukrainian refugees across the country. While support for Ukraine’s defense and fear and loathing of Russia span most of Poland’s political spectrum, a sluggish economy leaves many feeling Ukrainians should return home.