The Risk Report

PRESIDENT CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM scored a major win last month when Mexican special forces killed Rubén Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera, leader of the country’s most powerful criminal organization.

- By Ian Bremmer CONTRIBUTING EDITOR

A delicate moment for Sheinbaum, seen in Mexico City on Feb. 25

This is no ordinary drug gang. Its network involves not just fentanyl trafficking to the U.S. but also illegal mining, extortion, and human trafficking. And unlike most cartels, which have a hierarchical command structure, this organization operated through alliances with local gangs and smaller criminal groups, allowing it to expand operations across much of Mexico. But Oseguera’s death has also raised the stakes in Sheinbaum’s battle to both contain her country’s drug violence and ease pressure for action against the cartels from the Trump Administration.

The capture or killing of cartel leaders often triggers a surge in deadly violence, as factions struggle over control of the organizations and retaliate against authorities. The 2024 capture of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada provoked a major and sustained escalation of violence several weeks after the arrest.