AI will reshape politics globally

FEW POLITICAL LEADERS REALIZE THE RATE AT which artificial intelligence is racing ahead.

-  IAN BREMMER

For decades, technological progress has been logged at a pace known as Moore’s Law, named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel who observed that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every 18 to 24 months.

Now, we are approaching Nadella’s Law. “Just like Moore’s Law, we saw the doubling in performance every 18 months with AI. We have now started to see that doubling every six months or so,” said Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, at the company’s annual Ignite conference in 2024.

As a result of this disruptive velocity, two significant consequences are on the immediate horizon.

One is that we are quickly approaching a world in which AI agents can autonomously produce scientific advancements. AI is already being used in fields like biotech, in which AI models leverage biological research to quickly run experiments that can generate innovations in food production, medicine, and environmental protection. And in the field of materials science, Al is being used to design new materials for use in energy production, medicine, construction, electronics, and aerospace. Soon AI models could perform the entire scientific method, without humans.

The other development is “agentic AI” that can execute increasingly complex workplace tasks without human intervention. This advancement, which experts say is probably a year away, will reinvent the workplace. Productivity will surge; the nature of white collar work, and the number of white collar workers, will change significantly.

Knowledge work will soon be conducted entirely in the digital world. For those in scientific research, paralegal work, accounting, analytics, graphic design, and any entry-level desk job, the day when AI does your job might be just two to three years away.

Meanwhile, driverless vehicles will put truck, bus, and taxi drivers out of work.

That bring us to the politics.