Southern Discomfiture

The recent election results in Kerala suggest that a crack may be emerging in the state's long-standing political pattern

- N.K. Bhoopesh SURESH K. PANDEY

A state long seen as a Left citadel, where the Left continues to retain a significant vote share despite its recent electoral defeat, also hosts one of the country’s largest networks of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) shakhas, comparable to several Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled states. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) traces its presence in Kerala to 1942, when Dattopanth Thengadi was deputed to the southern state by M.S. Golwalkar. From those early moorings, the Sangh claims to have built a network of more than 5,000 shakhas across Kerala today. Yet, this formidable organisational spread has rarely translated into a sustained electoral presence for the BJP. Even as the party expanded dramatically across much of India over the past decade, Kerala, along with most South Indian states outside Karnataka, remained a striking exception.

One of the reasons frequently cited by political observers for the BJP’s limited success in Kerala is the state’s demographic composition. Nearly 48 per cent of Kerala’s population belongs to minority communities, with Muslims accounting for around 28 per cent, a factor often viewed as constraining the BJP’s electoral expansion. Yet, despite this demographic reality, the BJP has continued its long effort to break the electoral jinx, an attempt that has now translated into three Assembly seats in the recently concluded election.

According to available data, the BJP secured a vote share of 11.42 per cent, translating into 24,66,178 votes in the recently concluded election. In comparison, the party had polled 11.30 per cent and 23,54,468 votes in the 2021 Assembly elections. Interestingly, the BJP had performed better in other recent contests, securing a 16.68 per cent vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and 14.6 per cent in the 2025 local body polls.