All the President's Men

Is the US reset with Russia due to the China factor?

- Anil Wadhwa

THE talks between the US and Russian officials on February 18 in Riyadh marked the beginning of an abrupt pivot by President Donald Trump towards Russia in an attempt to reset ties between the two Cold War adversaries. Events have moved quickly since then—Russia and the US have designated a high-level team to start the talks to end the Ukraine war, while agreeing to restore the strength of personnel in their respective embassies and to work towards closer economic cooperation. Trump has desired to meet President Vladimir Putin to work towards securing a deal on Ukraine. This rapprochement is in marked contrast to the policies followed by the Joe Biden administration, which resulted in a wave of sanctions on Russia supplemented by substantial financial and military aid to Ukraine.

Analysts suggest that the shift has happened because Trump does not see the war ending in favour of Ukraine, and sees China as the main rival of the US in military and technological superiority, as opposed to a depleted Russia. A predictable relationship with Russia, the argument goes, will enable the US—already straining to keep up with an assertive China—to use all its resources for prolonging, and perhaps preventing China’s march towards the numero uno status in the world in times to come. Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is off the table as far as the US and Russia are concerned, even as it smarts under the loss of 20 per cent of its territory in the war with Russia. The US has ruled out specific security guarantees to Ukraine, asserting that if Ukraine signs a mineral extraction deal with the US, its security will be automatically ensured.