China's Baby Bust

Despite reversing its one-child policy, the nation is having to deal with an unprecedented decline in births

- GIULIA CARBONARO

FOR DECADES, CHINA HAS TRIED to rein in its population growth, permitting families only one child. Now, as it faces a decline, Beijing is trying to reverse what appears to be an almost inevitable trend, including by limiting abortions.

In January 2023, China's National Bureau of Statistics revealed the population had fallen for the first time in decades-down roughly 850,000 people in 2022 from the previous year's 1.41 billion.

For a country whose massive workforce has helped push toward a rapid economic expansion, falling birth rates spells pessimism.

Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine, and a leading expert on demography, aging and inequality, said the decline in the most populous country is unprecedented.

"It is long-term, irreversible and deep," he told Newsweek. "By one projection of the United Nations, by the end of this century China may have a population size that's barely above half of what it is now," he continued.

"In less than 30 years, by 2050, the median age of China's population half of the population-will reach over the age of 50, up from less than 40 at the turn of the century." In 2022, Beijing introduced policies improving pre- and post-natal services, hoping to boost births. But the measures are yet to reverse the decline experts think they might not be enough.

How China Reached This Point

This demographic shift has been similar to that of Western countries; as child mortality decreased, people had fewer children, and as the cost of raising a child increased, many were unable to afford to have them-especially millennials, hit by two recessions during their lifetime.

"More and more, young people do not want to have kids or even marry," Susan Greenhalgh, research professor of Chinese society at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, told Newsweek.