Back With a Vengeance

Measles was declared eliminated in 2000, but researchers warn of a “disaster” within 20 years if the U.S. doesn’t act now

- IAN RANDALL

ELIMINATED A QUARTER OF A CENTURY AGO in the U.S., measles may be on track for an “unfathomable” comeback within the next two decades.

This is the warning of a study led by epidemi-ologists from Stanford University who modeled the impact of decreasing vaccination rates on the spread of the infectious disease.

Already, waning levels of immunity have led to significant outbreaks within states—such as the recent episode in Texas that saw more than 620 cases, 64 hospitalizations and the deaths of two children.

“While the effects of declining vaccination won't be immediate, we could eventually see the return of awful complications from diseases that most clinicians today have not encountered thanks to decades of successful immunization,” said Professor Nathan Lo in a statement.

“With measles, we found that we're already on the precipice of disaster. If vaccination rates remain the same, the model predicts that measles may become endemic within about 20 years,” added Professor Mathew Kiang.

“That means an estimated 851,300 cases over 25 years, leading to 170,200 hospitalizations and 2,550 deaths.”

Kiang added: “It’s worth emphasizing that there really shouldn't be any cases at this point, because these diseases are preventable. Anything above zero is tragic. When you're talking about potentially thousands or millions, that’s unfathomable.”