State of inertia

It’s the time of the Great Centrist Drift, writes Danyl McLauchlan, an era of “lost opportunities and gradual failure driven not by ideology but a lack of it”.

- Danyl McLauchlan

The Interislander ferry keeps running out of power mid-journey and the passengers watch, horrified, as it drifts towards rocks while the crew works to restart the vessel. Their competitor, Bluebridge, keeps cancelling trips because of mechanical failure. There’s been some sort of roll-on roll-off ferry operating across the Cook Strait since 1962, and it has run into trouble before – strikes in the 70s and 80s, a malfunctioning navigational system on a new ship in the early 2000s (not to mention the 1968 Wahine disaster). But this is the first time in 60 years that the service has just stopped working.

There’s a famous exchange in Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises: “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

New Zealand isn’t bankrupt. The economy has flirted with recession, the current account deficit is terrible and the damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods will cost billions of dollars to repair – but GDP is just under $400 billion a year, government debt is low, and our currency is relatively stable.

Things don’t seem to work very well, though. The ferries are running again – for now. But important components of the state are visibly deteriorating: the health system, education, the water infrastructure, metropolitan public transport, civil defence. It feels like we’re in the gradual phase of state failure – a point we’re still decades away from, probably, hopefully, but blithely drifting towards.