Rethinking investing in an age of uncertainty

Focus on fundamentals, not forecasts

- By DUGGAN MATTHEWS

FOR MUCH of the last century, investment success was often linked to foresight. The prevailing belief was that skilled investors could anticipate market cycles, economic inflection points, and policy shifts to stay ahead of the curve.

However, that paradigm is shifting. Today, markets are no longer guided solely by fundamentals such as interest rates or corporate earnings.

Instead, they are increasingly driven by fast-moving, unpredictable forces: a single tweet from a political leader, an unexpected regulatory change, or a sudden shift in public sentiment can move global markets in minutes.

In this environment, forecasting outcomes with consistency has begun to resemble speculation more than strategy. Political, ideological, and geopolitical developments now unfold in real time and often without warning. Building portfolios based on what might happen next has become a high-risk, low-confidence exercise.

The standard disclaimer, “past performance is not indicative of future results”, has never felt more relevant.

Why relative performance is not a North Star

Despite the growing complexity of markets, many investors and managers still operate within a relative performance framework. Success is too often measured not by the absolute value created, but by how a portfolio compares to a benchmark or peer group.