Encouraging uptick in business confidence

... but can the momentum continue in 2026?

- Archie Hart and Varun Laijawalla, co-portfolio managers (emerging markets equity), Ninety One.

FOLLOWING TWO consecutive quarters of declines, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by five points to 44 in the fourth quarter of 2025, putting confidence three points above its long-term average. This means that 44% of respondents are satisfied with prevailing business conditions.

The rebound is notable for its breadth as confidence improved in five of the six sectors surveyed, with only building contractors registering weaker sentiment. Taken together, the results suggest that the economy is regaining some momentum after remaining subdued in the middle of the year.

This is in line with the modest improvement in activity seen in the GDP data released by Statistics South Africa in early-December 2025, which showed that the economy expanded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) -marking the fourth consecutive quarter of economic expansion.

The key positive is that the improvement is broad-based. Even among building contractors, the only sector to dip during the fourth quarter, sentiment remains close to its long-term average. While this is not a step-change, it is a meaningful turn in the right direction.

The survey took place from 10 to 24 November 2025, and some positive developments were noted just before and during this period, including the removal of SA from the FATF grey list, as well as a credit ratings upgrade by S&P Ratings.