South Africa's 2025/26 winter crop production prospects remain positive

We have been concerned that the unfavourable weather conditions in parts of the Western Cape would result in further downward revisions of South Africa's 2025/26 winter crop production prospects.

- AGRIBUSINESS PERSPECTIVE by Wandile Sihlobo

The Western Cape is a major producing province, accounting for more than two-thirds of the country's winter crops.

But we were heartened to see that at the end of October 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee did not slash the production prospects in its monthly update. The harvest estimate remained unchanged from the September 2025 figures, at 2,77 million tons, representing a 4% increase from the 2024/25 season.

This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. This is a third production estimate with seven more to follow. However, at this stage, the figures are more realistic and unlikely to change significantly going forward as the season progresses.

HARVESTS GAINING MOMENTUM

The crop has matured in various regions to the extent that harvests have recently begun and will continue to gain momentum in the coming months.

If we consider the major winter crop, wheat, the farmers had delivered about 202 755t to the commercial silos since the start of October 2025. This equals 10% of South Africa's expected 2025/26 wheat harvest of 2,03 million tons.

In the expected overall 2,77 million tons of South Africa's 2025/26 winter crop harvest, approximately 2,03 million tons are wheat. The harvest is up 5% from the 2024/25 season.