Notable increase in subtropical crops puts pressure on prices

Market conditions will dominate the list of concerns in the subtropical crops sector this year, as tariff volatility is expected to continue. The citrus, avocado, and macadamia industries are all expecting an increase in yields this year, increasing the pressure to balance supply and demand.

- Lindi Botha

In January, the US announced that South Africa would continue to benefit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), at least for 2026.

While this brings relief for this year, it does not quell the continued uncertainty over market access for South Africa's growing subtropical crops.

Furthermore, benefits from AGOA are limited to the macadamia and orange industries. South Africa does not have access for its avocados to the US, and access for mandarins remains at a 30% import tariff.

CITRUS CONTINUES PRODUCTION GROWTH

Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers' Association (CGA), said in a statement that AGOA, therefore, had limited value for the citrus industry. “South African mandarins have proved to be popular in the US and a 30% tariff on mandarins will negatively affect growers in the Western Cape and Northern Cape during the coming season.”

He stated that more urgency was needed to expand South Africa's market access in other countries. “Last season, the CGA's foray into promoting our citrus in India showed some promising results, but with greater effort, a lot more can be achieved. We need to push with urgency for a BRICS trade pact that actually delivers for South Africans.”

Commenting on prevailing sentiment in the industry, Ntshabele said that tariffs had now been positioned as a central mechanism of trade. “Other events early in the new year have also signalled and heightened the sense that geopolitical and trade conflict might be a feature of how 2026 pans out.”

South African citrus growers packed a record 203,7 million 15kg cartons for export last season, representing an increase of 22% compared with 2024. The industry is edging closer to its target of creating an enabling environment to export 260 million cartons by 2032. Tougher market conditions will be compounded by increasing production across most citrus segments and regions this year.