Strength in Numbers

As the world’s most populous country, India needs to harness its demographic dividend into a productive workforce with adequate income and social security. This will be crucial in its quest to become Viksit Bharat by 2047. Will we rise up to the challenge?

- SURABHI

AN IMPRESSIVE 1.44 billion. That’s the population of India and it is expected to reach its peak in the early 2060s at around 1.7 billion before it starts to decline, according to the ‘UN World Population Prospects Report 2024’. If strength lies in numbers, then India as the world’s most populous country surely has the strength. It is the world’s largest democracy, the fastest-growing major economy and has a thriving domestic market because of the sheer size of its population.

But scratch the surface and the numbers show that maintaining this momentum in economic growth would require concerted efforts, not least being a focus on its population and ensuring that not only is it productively employed but it also has the wherewithal to remain so in the coming decades.

Alakh N. Sharma, Professor and Director at the New Delhi-based Institute for Human Development (IHD), says India’s demographic advantage will continue till 2036 or until a maximum of 2040, after which the working-age population will begin to decline. “This advantage enables more people to participate in productive work and contribute to the national income,” he says, adding that the proportion of youth and children in the country’s population has already begun to fall.

Nagesh Kumar, Director and CEO at the New Delhi-based Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (ISID), says that as long as people have purchasing power, they will create demand. “Part of the dynamics of the Indian economy even now is due to our youthful population that has led to higher demand and growth. In contrast, countries like Japan, South Korea and Europe face low or flat economic growth as their population growth has saturated or is shrinking,” he says.