What happens next? Moscow may have scaled back its military ambitions, but the war is far from over

One month after Vladimir Putin asserted that Ukraine should be liberated from the historical mistake of its independence, the Russian defence ministry announced that Russia’s war aims were limited to the Donbas region, and nearing completion.

- Jack Watling

This climb down undoubtedly lays the groundwork for selling the operation as a success to the Russian public despite an abysmal military combat performance. But that does not mean a rapid end to the war. Having failed in its initial attempts to seize several Ukrainian cities, and with its logistics in disarray, Russia has been forced to focus on one target at a time. Mariupol has been the most recent main effort.

Once that port city falls, Kharkiv is likely to be the next target, followed by an attempt to push north along the Dnieper River to cut off Ukrainian forces in Donbas.

If the Russians can hold Kherson, this would pave the way for a Russia-initiated ceasefire, with a link created between Donbas and Crimea, and Russian propaganda claiming to have averted a fictional Ukrainian genocide against ethnic Russians in the region.