US Rate Cuts: Core Inflation Cooling Offers Limited Relief For Fed

Underlying US inflation probably moderated in April for the first time in six months, offering a ray of hope that price pressures will start to ease again after a string of upside surprises.

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The core consumer price index, which excludes food and fuel, is seen rising 0.3 per cent from a month earlier after 0.4 per cent advances throughout the first quarter. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue its CPI report on Wednesday. Compared with April 2023, the core CPI is projected to rise 3.6 per cent. While that annual increase would be the smallest in three years, it's still running too fast to placate Federal Reserve policymakers, who want evidence inflation is slowing consistently as they debate the timing of interest-rate cuts.

The overall CPI probably climbed 0.4 per cent for a third straight month as gasoline prices reached a six-month high. While core goods prices have largely been retreating, underlying services costs remain elevated and explain why inflation proved stubborn in the first quarter.