No Way Forward

A stand off at Venezuela’s border reflects a crisis in stasis

- Karl Vick

A SENSE OF IMPENDING CLImax followed Juan Guaidó from Venezuela’s capital city to its western border on Feb. 21–22. The young opposition leader is one of two people who claim to be President of the failing petrostate. And at regular intervals on the 500-mile road trip, his caravan pushed through checkpoints manned by the army that answers to the other—Nicolás Maduro, who still clings stubbornly to the presidency after ostensibly winning re-election in a ballot widely seen as stolen.

At each roadblock, the contest for control of Venezuela played out in miniature. Guaidó may be recognized as the legitimate ruler by more than 50 nations, including the U.S. But control of the government depends on those in uniform who hold guns and claim allegiance to Maduro. The challenger’s journey, in defiance of a travel ban imposed by his rival, was a calculated gamble to draw the armed forces into the opposition’s orbit. The plan at the border called for dismantling barricades, then driving waiting truckloads of U.S. food and medical aid into the impoverished land. The idea had an elegant logic. By demonstrating control of both the nation’s armed forces and its borders, Guaidó could effectively exhibit the power he had nominally claimed a month earlier, while also feeding at least a few hungry mouths.

It didn’t happen. The confrontation at the Colombian border on Feb. 23 merely sparked a round of street clashes between security forces and civilians. The aid stayed put, the barricades stayed up, and despite Guaidó’s boast of the “participation” of the armed forces, all but 320 defectors remained loyal to Maduro. If there had been a turning point, it was the grinding sort that becomes apparent only much later.