At Home In Fantasyland

Phil Twyford’s ambitious housing plans ignore the brute realities.

- Jane Clifton

There’s some sort of Bermuda Triangle effect in New Zealand around the figure of $11 billion. Steven Joyce steadied National’s vote overnight in the last election campaign by pointing to an $11 billion fiscal hole in Labour’s figures, despite a chorus of economists saying he was wrong. The National-led Government last year earmarked $11 billion for new infrastructure, much of which Labour has now mothballed. Our superannuation bill was $11 billion last year, and it’s doubtful that its growth will be offset by the resumed contributions to the Super Fund. Now, Housing Minister Phil Twyford is boasting that his KiwiBuild could add as much as $11 billion to house construction by 2023, when the Treasury has just halved its forecast of the contribution to $2.5 billion.

It’s hard to say whether Twyford should take up poker or not. His “hand” is a rival report from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Enterprise (MBIE) officials forecasting $11 billion as its upside projection. But the Treasury, which predates MBIE in the august-institution stakes by 172 years, is seldom out by anything like 77%. Twyford has already been made to apologise for calling its officials “bean counters”, out-of-touch and “kids”. Attacking public officials, who cannot defend themselves, is mean and unworthy – and pretty silly when the brute realities, and the politics, are all on their side.