Is A Fourth Wave Coming?

The third wave of Covid infections might have ended with minimal impact, but doctors warn against complacency. A fourth wave is inevitable, the experts say

- Sonali Acharjee

In March 20, India recorded 1,761 new Covid cases, the lowest single-day statistic in nearly two years. Indeed, the pandemic seems to have declined more drastically in the country over the past five weeks than at any other point since March 2020. With 3,536 average new cases reported in the week ending March 15, India contributed only 0.21 per cent of global cases—an encouraging record low.

Around the world, though, the trend of declining cases has already started to reverse. In the week ending March 20, global cases increased by 8 per cent from the week before. On March 17, South Korea reported a record 620,000 new cases with one in every 20 people testing positive. This is the second-highest single-day tally logged in any country so far. Over the past week, Germany has logged 1.5 million new cases; Vietnam, 1.2 million; France, 520,000; and the UK, 480,000. The global rise prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 21 to reassert a disheartening fact—the pandemic is not over yet. “The third wave might have ended in India, but you cannot become complacent and rule out the possibility of future waves,” says K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI). While the now-famous IIT-Kanpur model has predicted that a fourth wave will hit India by June 22, experts say that three major factors will determine when the country will witness the next wave and how impactful it will be. The first is how well we handle the growing pandemic fatigue, then the rise of new Covid variants, and, finally, the vaccine booster coverage for the vulnerable.

BATTLING PANDEMIC FATIGUE