Unravelling The Jobs Riddle

THE CONVENTIONALwisdom is that jobs will decide the outcome of the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Like most pieces of conventional wisdom, the truth is more nuanced.

- Minhaz Merchant

Jobs will play a crucial role. So will caste, development, welfare schemes, religion and that ‘X’ factor called political charisma. Opposition leaders lack it. It would be a mistake, however, for the BJP to imagine that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oratory will carry them to victory in a close general election. While they are not the only factor, jobs will play a key role in both urban and rural India.

Credible statistics on job creation are hard to come by. The data from the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) is awaited. It will bring clarity to the festering debate on how many jobs have been created annually since the BJP-led NDA took office in 2014. Complicating matters is India’s informal sector where the bulk of jobs are generated. Add to that an indeterminate number of new self-employed people through schemes like Mudra loans for MSMEs. India’s official unemployment rate is below five per cent but practically no one believes it. Figures from those employed in the farm sector are notoriously hard to collate accurately. Schemes like MGNREGA, which offer seasonal work, add a layer of complexity to the jobs debate.

There is light though at the end of the jobs tunnel. Technology is the driver. Innovative work practices by progressive employers are playing a part as well. For example, Pepsi India will now allow employees to work off-location. Pepsi staff in disciplines like HR, finance and information technology can report directly to headquarters from their chosen location. The flexibility saves costs to both employer and employee: infrastructure, commuting and myriad overheads.

But it is technology that could enable the next jobs surge. India needs to generate 10 million new jobs a year in both the formal and informal sectors. This is apart from the growing number of “temp” workers and small entrepreneurs – not just