US Fed Will Keep Trump Waiting Amid Wave of Global Rate Cuts

US Tariffs May Force Further Easing by Most of 23 Central Banks Observed by Bloomberg

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NEW YORK - Mr. Donald Trump is struggling to get the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but policymakers around the world will not need so much convincing.

The US President's tariff onslaught is likely to force further measured easing in the coming months by most of the 23 central banks featured in Bloomberg's quarterly guide to the global monetary outlook, according to Bloomberg Economics (BE).

Its aggregate measure of advanced-economy rates will drop by more than 70 basis points in 2025, while a similar gauge for borrowing costs throughout the wider world is projected to fall by even more.

The broad direction of travel for policy reflects the view among many monetary officials that Mr. Trump's attempt to repatriate manufacturing and rewire commerce, if enduring, may be more of a danger to growth rather than posing a threat to consumer prices.

"On inflation, cooling demand and falling energy prices point to a continued decline, albeit with variation across countries," the International Monetary Fund's No. 2 official, Dr. Gita Gopinath, said last week after a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs. "Downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high."

For the US, worries about the consumer-price fallout from a tariff-induced jack-up in import costs may stoke ongoing worries at the Fed. BE predicts its policymakers will resist Mr. Trump's pressure to reduce rates until circumstances finally allow a single quarter-point move in the fourth quarter.

Peers in the euro zone, Britain and Canada are all seen delivering two more cuts of that size in 2025. Among the few exceptions to the easing push are Japan, which may raise once more, while Brazil probably stays on hold.