Spun

Every midterm election is a referendum on the sitting president. Always.

- ALEX MAGNO

The pro-administration coalition delivered an underwhelming performance despite its overwhelming advantages. This outcome needs to be rigorously examined.

Elections are not revolutions, of course. The political dynasties (despite a few remarkable upsets) remain firmly rooted in areas where command votes outnumber market votes. In the race to control the Senate, however, market votes outnumber command votes. It is in this race where we could draw a clearer reading of public sentiment.

National elections are complex processes involving policy issues, ethnicities, party organizations and institutional endorsements. In our setting, fighting for a seat elected at large is always expensive.

The pro-administration coalition was well prepared for a costly battle. The 2025 national budget was mangled to expand the subsidy programs needed to buy popularity. Funds were moved from priority spending items to projects that would benefit favored local politicians. The pro-administration senatorial ticket was composed of reliable vote-getters—setting the stage to overwhelmingly dominate.

But the administration ticket lacked several things. It did not have a clear message. It did not offer a credible legislative program. It did not offer solutions to the things that trouble ordinary Filipinos—such as food inflation.

The administration ticket did not benefit from the President's political capital. Polls taken in the months preceding showed declining trust and approval ratings for BBM. There was little to be said about decisive leadership propelling the nation forward.