![What the Commons could look like after the July vote](https://cdn.magzter.com/1591272633/1716436079/articles/qQPcBmJVE1716439641332/WHAT-THE-COMMONS-COULD-LOOK-LIKE-AFTER-THE-JULY-VOTE.jpg)
Here are four possible outcomes for the general election, from the Conservatives losing seats but remaining the largest party, to Labour making enough gains to form its first government in 14 years.
Each scenario includes examples of the size of the swing and the turnover of seats that could take place.
Conservatives lose majority but remain largest party
The general election is being held using new constituency boundaries, which means it will not be possible to compare the results directly with what happened at the last general election in 2019. In order to judge how well the parties do at the election, and to work out which seats they need to win to form a government, a set of notional results for the 2019 election has been calculated to show what would have happened if that contest had taken place using the new boundaries.
These notional results have been compiled by professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the PA news agency, and will be used as the basis for reporting the gains and losses at the general election. Under these notional results, the Conservatives won 372 seats in the 2019 election.
A total of 326 seats are needed for a majority in the House of Commons, therefore the Tories can afford to lose up to 46 seats before dropping below this threshold. A uniform nationwide swing in the share of the vote at the election from Conservative to Labour of 4.2 percentage points would likely be enough to wipe out the Tory majority, as it would involve 47 Conservatives losses – 40 to Labour, five to the Liberal Democrats and two to the SNP – and reduce them to 325 seats.
Bu hikaye The Independent dergisinin May 23, 2024 sayısından alınmıştır.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Giriş Yap
Bu hikaye The Independent dergisinin May 23, 2024 sayısından alınmıştır.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Giriş Yap
![Global action is needed to bring home these children](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/qrUypynq-1718521842600/GLOBAL-ACTION-IS-NEEDED-TO-BRING-HOME-THESE-CHILDREN.jpg)
Global action is needed to bring home these children
I am often asked about the reasons and mechanisms behind the deportation of Ukrainian children. It is especially difficult to understand for Western audiences. What is deportation? How do Russians take Ukrainian children? And, most importantly, why do they do it?
!['Some of them believe they have always been Russian'](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/zJghSrcIz1718521350996/SOME-OF-THEM-BELIEVE-THEY-HAVE-ALWAYS-BEEN-RUSSIAN.jpg)
'Some of them believe they have always been Russian'
Tom Watling tells how kidnapped Ukrainian children have been 'brainwashed' after being taken into Russia or Russian-occupied territory - and how others may still be trapped
![Like all successful sporting teams, partnerships are key](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/3T_eO2_Vk1718521176838/LIKE-ALL-SUCCESSFUL-SPORTING-TEAMS-PARTNERSHIPS-ARE-KEY.jpg)
Like all successful sporting teams, partnerships are key
There is a new generation of women supporting the men in Gareth Southgate's 26-man England squad,
![Family of missing Bristol student offers £20k reward](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/ofkAnUnqB1718521021575/FAMILY-OF-MISSING-BRISTOL-STUDENT-OFFERS-20K-REWARD.jpg)
Family of missing Bristol student offers £20k reward
The family of a missing student has set a £20,000 reward for information that leads to him being found. Jack O'Sullivan, 23, was last seen over 100 days ago, in the early hours of 2 March, in the Hotwells area of Bristol after walking home from a house party.
![A beaming Kate returns to public life amid cancer fight](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/m43LvkNZl1718520863456/A-BEAMING-KATE-RETURNS-TO-PUBLIC-LIFE-AMID-CANCER-FIGHT.jpg)
A beaming Kate returns to public life amid cancer fight
Princess of Wales attended Trooping the Colour ceremony
![Parties unveil rival pledges to tackle cancer waiting lists](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/AEm9m9MLi1718520780625/PARTIES-UNVEIL-RIVAL-PLEDGES-TO-TACKLE-CANCER-WAITING-LISTS.jpg)
Parties unveil rival pledges to tackle cancer waiting lists
An uplift in radiotherapy treatment machines by 46 per cent could help \"spare families the heartbreak of losing a loved one\" to cancer, the Liberal Democrats have claimed.
![Labour targeting Badenoch seat with tactical voting call](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/lBh967ZvK1718520695322/LABOUR-TARGETING-BADENOCH-SEAT-WITH-TACTICAL-VOTING-CALL.jpg)
Labour targeting Badenoch seat with tactical voting call
Tory leadership hopeful is facing a fight to win in 'blue wall'
![Tories accused of 'election con' over new Rwanda flight](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/eqndcspxX1718520604147/TORIES-ACCUSED-OF-ELECTION-CON-OVER-NEW-RWANDA-FLIGHT.jpg)
Tories accused of 'election con' over new Rwanda flight
Plan to fly two migrants on voluntary scheme next week
![Public not buying Sunak's last-ditch election gambit](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1734923/KHLpeDAvN1718520481620/PUBLIC-NOT-BUYING-SUNAKS-LASTDITCH-ELECTION-GAMBIT.jpg)
Public not buying Sunak's last-ditch election gambit
Rishi Sunak has put tax cuts at heart of his pitch to nation but a poll suggests more voters want to see spending on services
!['It's difficult. What do you tell someone who's dead?'](https://reseuro.magzter.com/100x125/articles/22095/1733917/F0Ro0vpz-1718441462905/ITS-DIFFICULT-WHAT-DO-YOU-TELL-SOMEONE-WHOS-DEAD.jpg)
'It's difficult. What do you tell someone who's dead?'
They can talk to them, see them and their voices sound real Zoë Beaty meets the grieving parents and partners using ghostbot technology that is making life after death a reality