The energy transition will be fractured and long

As COP30 kicks off its second week in Brazil, much has changed since the landmark Paris climate agreement was penned 10 years ago.

- Ron Bousso

A demonstrator in Manchester, England, carries a doll as people take part in a nationwide protest on Saturday calling for stronger global climate action, during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil.

(REUTERS)

The spirit of cooperation that once reigned has been shattered by economic rivalries and a stark divergence in climate policies among the world’s biggest polluters.

The landmark UN COP21 climate agreement signed in Paris on Dec 12, 2015 saw 195 nations commit to setting binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels. The ambition has in recent years been strengthened to 1.5 degrees.

Ten years on, and global renewables consumption has tripled, with solar alone growing more than seven-fold, according to the Energy Institute's 2024 Statistical Review. But the hard truth is that fossil fuel consumption has continued rising, with the share of wind and solar in the world’s energy mix growing from 4% to 9% of the mix over the past decade.

Perhaps just as significantly, the energy transition in recent years has split into three distinct paths represented by the United States, China and Europe, as regional economic and political realities trump global cooperation.

China — the world’s largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter — has had to import vast volumes of oil, gas and coal in the past three decades at an enormous cost to fuel the growth of its industry, cities and middle class.

Beijing's energy policy is therefore increasingly being shaped by an ambition to reduce its reliance on imports. This has driven investments in domestic sources of energy, be they coal, oil, gas or renewables, while also scaling up electric vehicle manufacturing and other green technologies to reduce demand for imported fossil fuels over the long term.