Shifting trade landscape could well benefit South African soya bean producers

The geopolitical spin-off from US President Donald Trump's tariffs and a dip in American market share in China should not be seen as a drawback, but a potential opportunity for local soya bean farmers.

- AGRIBUSINESS PERSPECTIVE by Hamlet Hlomendlini

The global soya bean trade has been reshaped by geopolitical tensions, particularly those stemming from the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

While much attention has been given to the impact on American farmers, who lost significant market share in China due to what is framed as retaliatory tariffs, the ripple effects extend far beyond the US.

SHIFTING TRADE DYNAMICS

South Africa, too, has found itself caught in the crosshairs of shifting trade dynamics, with its eligibility under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) still uncertain.

This ambiguity adds a layer of complexity to South Africa's agricultural export strategy, especially as it seeks to expand its footprint in global markets.

For South African soya bean producers, however, these disruptions present a unique opportunity.

With China turning away from US soya beans and increasingly sourcing from Brazil and Argentina, a gap has emerged in the supply chain that South Africa could help fill.

In October 2023, South Africa made its first bulk soya bean shipment to China, a symbolic and strategic milestone that signals the country’s potential to become a meaningful player in the global soya bean market.