CRIME: NEW ALGORITHM PREDICTS WHEN AND WHERE A CRIME WILL HAPPEN BEFORE IT TAKES PLACE
BBC Science Focus|Summer 2022
The Al model was tested across eight cities in the US and predicts future crimes with 80 to 90 per cent accuracy, without falling foul of bias
ISHANU CHATTOPADHYAY
CRIME: NEW ALGORITHM PREDICTS WHEN AND WHERE A CRIME WILL HAPPEN BEFORE IT TAKES PLACE

YOUR ALGORITHM SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED CRIME IN US CITIES A WEEK BEFORE THEY HAPPENED. HOW DID YOU BUILD THE ALGORITHM?

The city of Chicago and the seven other cities that we looked at have started putting out crime event logs in the public domain. In Chicago, these are actually updated daily with a week's delay.

These event logs contain information about what happened, what type of crime it was, where it happened, the latitude, longitude, and a timestamp. In Chicago, we also have information about if there were any arrests made when there were interactions with the police officers.

So we start with this event log and then digitise the city into small areas of about two blocks by two blocks about 1,000 feet [300 metres] across.

And in one of those tiles, we'll see this time series of these different events, like violent crimes, property crimes, homicides and so on. This results in tens of thousands of time series that are coevolving.

What our algorithm does is look at these coevolving time series, then figures out how they are dependent on one another and how they're constraining one another - so how they're shaping one another. That brings up a really complex model.

You can then make predictions on what's going to happen, say, a week in advance at a particular tile, plus or minus one day. In Chicago, for example, today is Wednesday. Using our algorithm, you can say that next Wednesday, on the intersection of 37th Street and Southwestern Avenue, there would be homicide.

HOW DO YOU ENVISAGE THE WAYS YOUR ALGORITHM COULD BE USED?

This story is from the Summer 2022 edition of BBC Science Focus.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.

This story is from the Summer 2022 edition of BBC Science Focus.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.

MORE STORIES FROM BBC SCIENCE FOCUSView All
5 SIMPLE WAYS TO RECLAIM YOUR ATTENTION
BBC Science Focus

5 SIMPLE WAYS TO RECLAIM YOUR ATTENTION

Primed for constant interruptions, your brain is now distracting itself, says science. It's time to break the cycle and retrain your focus

time-read
10 mins  |
April 2024
GOING ROGUE
BBC Science Focus

GOING ROGUE

Some planets are stuck following the same orbital paths their entire lives. Others break free to wander alone through the vast, empty darkness of interstellar space and there's a lot more of them than you might think

time-read
7 mins  |
April 2024
BED BUGS VS THE WORLD
BBC Science Focus

BED BUGS VS THE WORLD

When bloodthirsty bed bugs made headlines for infesting Paris Fashion Week in 2023, it shone a spotlight on a problem that's been making experts itch for decades: the arms race going on between bed bugs and humans. Now, with the 2024 Summer Olympics fast approaching, the stakes are higher than ever

time-read
10 mins  |
April 2024
THE EYES THAT WATCH THE SKY
BBC Science Focus

THE EYES THAT WATCH THE SKY

When it launches in 2026, the Copernicus programme's Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring satellite will give us a new window on to Earth's atmosphere... And how we're altering it

time-read
7 mins  |
April 2024
TIME-RESTRICTED EATING LINKED TO HIGHER RISK OF CARDIOVASCULAR DEATH
BBC Science Focus

TIME-RESTRICTED EATING LINKED TO HIGHER RISK OF CARDIOVASCULAR DEATH

Skipping breakfast might not be so good for your health, after all

time-read
2 mins  |
April 2024
INSIDE THE PROJECT TO SCAN THOUSANDS OF RARE SPECIMENS
BBC Science Focus

INSIDE THE PROJECT TO SCAN THOUSANDS OF RARE SPECIMENS

A major collaborative project has created 3D reconstructions of previously locked away museum specimens

time-read
1 min  |
April 2024
VIDEO IS FIRST EVIDENCE OF AN ORCA KILLING A GREAT WHITE
BBC Science Focus

VIDEO IS FIRST EVIDENCE OF AN ORCA KILLING A GREAT WHITE

Tourists sailing off the South African coast film a never-before-seen event: a lone orca attacking a 2.5m shark

time-read
2 mins  |
April 2024
AI REVEALS PROSTATE CANCER IS NOT JUST ONE DISEASE
BBC Science Focus

AI REVEALS PROSTATE CANCER IS NOT JUST ONE DISEASE

DNA analysis carried out by artificial intelligence has helped scientists make a discovery that could revolutionise future treatment

time-read
1 min  |
April 2024
MYSTERIOUS WAVES DETECTED IN JUPITER'S CORE
BBC Science Focus

MYSTERIOUS WAVES DETECTED IN JUPITER'S CORE

Scientists hope unusual fluctuations in the gas giant's magnetic field might reveal what's inside

time-read
1 min  |
April 2024
MINI ORGANS GROWN FROM UNBORN BABIES MARK A BREAKTHROUGH IN PRENATAL MEDICINE
BBC Science Focus

MINI ORGANS GROWN FROM UNBORN BABIES MARK A BREAKTHROUGH IN PRENATAL MEDICINE

A new technique could allow congenital conditions to be diagnosed and treated before birth

time-read
1 min  |
April 2024