How will the Covid-19 pandemic end?

Sars came to a clear, abrupt, easily identifiable end; that is unlikely to be the case with Covid-19

- Jeremy Au Yong

Those old enough to remember the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak here in 2003 may recall some of the drama that took place during the final days of the epidemic.

As cases dwindled and fear of the disease started to fade, public attention turned to maths – specifically, how many days it had been since the last detected case.

The magic number was 20. Go 20 days without registering a new case and the World Health Organisation (WHO) would take Singapore off its dreaded list of Sars-affected countries, and the war against the disease could be considered won.

Health experts did warn that the change in WHO classification was largely symbolic, but to a public who had lived through months of fear, it felt like an important symbol nonetheless.

There was thus no shortage of anticipation in May 2003 as the days without new cases stacked up and the country inched closer to the WHO milestone.

But Sars would throw one final spanner into the works.

Hours before what would have been the target, the Ministry of Health (MOH) dropped a bombshell. Tests on a man who was hospitalised with fever a week earlier confirmed he had the coronavirus. The “all clear” champagne would have to be put on ice.

That declaration would be delayed till May 30, when the WHO announcement finally came.

The country breathed a sigh of relief. The three-month-long nightmare was over. Tourists could return and many of the measures could start to be eased.

Almost as suddenly as it had begun, the crisis ended, and life could return to normal.

In many ways, the Sars outbreak would prove to be an important dress rehearsal for the Covid-19 pandemic.