Wakefield win doesn't mean Starmer is bound for No 10

To be brutal, Labour's win in the Wakefield by-election was not good enough to put Keir Starmer on course to win the next general election. And the Liberal Democrat victory in Tiverton and Honiton hardly matters at all.

- JOHN RENTOUL

The swing to Labour in Wakefield would win the party a majority in the House of Commons if it were repeated in a general election, but it won’t be. By-elections are a different kind of contest, a chance for people to express their disapproval of the government rather than a choice between alternative governments.

By-elections are still an important indicator of the state of play between the parties, but they require a big discount to be applied. Wakefield is the first gain by Labour from the Conservative government since Corby in 2012, which Andy Sawford won with the same swing that Simon Lightwood secured last night. Not only did Labour go on to lose the 2015 general election, but the Conservatives won Corby back.

We have to go further back to the 1990s for examples of the kind of Labour by-election wins that precede a general election victory, when the party won Barking, Dagenham, South-East Staffordshire and Dudley West with swings of 22-29 per cent, compared with the 13 per cent in Wakefield.