Universal credit has driven up crime rate, study finds

The government's flagship universal credit benefits system has driven an increase in the crime rate across Britain, a new study has found.

- JON STONE

Researchers at University College London studying the roll-out of the new system found there was "salient and plausible evidence linking UC to an increase in recorded crime".

The peer-reviewed findings, published in the British Journal of Criminology, are the latest piece of evidence adding to a growing body of work suggesting less generous social security systems drive increases in lawbreaking.

The study's base model suggested UC - which puts more restrictive conditions on claimants - "led to a 6.5 per cent increase in crime during the five-year period we look at, 20132018".

Crime has soared up the political agenda in recent years, and in 2019 overtook health as the second most important issue for voters after Brexit, according to pollsters YouGov. While the situation has varied, especially during the pandemic, the issue has remained close to the top of priorities since.

The researchers were able to track UC's relationship with increased reported crime because it was rolled out in different areas of the country at different times, effectively at random.

Their study controlled for other factors linked with increases in the crime rate, such as cuts in the number of police officers, cuts to local services, and improvements or deteriorations in the economic situation.

It concluded: "While it is impossible to comprehensively prove causation from a single, observational study, our results provide salient and plausible evidence linking UC to an increase in recorded crime.