Setting the scene for a 2023 North Korean nuclear crisis

Kim Jong-un seems likely to continue launching missiles this year as well as preparing for a landmark nuclear weapon test. Arpan Rai gets an overview of the situation on the peninsula

- Arpan Rai

North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un began 2023 with bullish rhetoric calling for the "exponential" expansion of the country's nuclear arsenal, in a speech that came after weeks of missile tests that rattled the nerves of the hermit kingdom's neighbours.

Kim appeared indignant in that speech at the lack of engagement he was seeing from the US and other world powers, which he accused of being "keen on isolating and stifling" his country. Despite tests of newer and bigger missiles from North Korea and launches that have flown directly over Japanese territory, there have been no apparent efforts by Washington or its allies to get Pyongyang to a negotiating table.

Since making that new year speech, Kim and his military have been ominously quiet. However, with preparations under way in Pyongyang for a major parade likely to take place next month, no one is under any illusions that the tensions on the Korean peninsula are going to go away on their own.

Jitters have been felt most keenly in neighbouring South Korea, with president Yoon Suk Yeol feeling pressed enough to remark that Seoul - until now a non-nuclear state reliant on the US for its deterrent - could perhaps "deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess its own". Yoon openly talked up the prospect of an arms race with Kim, saying that if that happens, South Korea will "be able to get a hold of [nuclear weapons] sooner with our science and technologies".

Experts monitoring the tensions say the prospect of an all-out military conflict breaking out - at least this year - are very slim, given the current reluctance of both the US and Seoul to directly engage in any tit-for-tat escalation. North Korean test launches in recent months have mostly been met with stern words, and occasionally the test-firing of less powerful South Korean artillery armaments.