Can a new leader save the Tories from poll disaster?

In the past week, Rishi Sunak has suffered the defection of Lee Anderson, a donor race row and, inevitably, yet more speculation about his leadership.

- SEAN O'GRADY

He's ruled out an election on 2 May, declaring that economic and political recoveries are "around the corner" and urging nervous colleagues to "stick to the plan".

He is sticking to his public working assumption of an election in the second half of the year. That means getting through the summer, finally making the Rwanda plan effective, “stopping the boats”, and voters benefiting from more tax cuts, lower inflation and lower interest rates in the autumn. But even some in No 10 fear that the present situation is unsustainable.

Sunak says “all Conservatives are united in wanting to deliver a brighter future” for Britain, which is arguable; and that he’s “not interested in Westminster politics”, which would be highly unusual for a man in his line of work. The impression is growing of a man who is losing control of events and of his own party, his authority seeping away, his own future passing out of his hands. No surprise, then, that there’s a bit of plotting going on...

What would a new leader and prime minister do for the Tories’ popularity?

It sounds mad, but it might help, and it could be time for a calculated gamble. Assuming it’s a coronation rather than a contest, and there’s immediate unity and harmony in support of the new leader, it might give the party something of a lift in the polls. New leaders often do, at least before the tough decisions and miseries of office catch up with them. Sunak was popular once. So was Boris Johnson.