The day after Ceasefire seals defeat of Tehran's 'axis of resistance' - for now

The ceasefire that, barring a major last-minute problem, is due to come into force on Sunday will cement massive changes across the Middle East and may seal a significant defeat for Islamist militant groups that for years have been powerful actors in the region.

- Jason Burke

Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia Muslim militia in Iraq and Syria will all emerge from the conflict considerably weakened. Only the Houthis in Yemen are stronger – though this may not last. The Islamic State remains a shadow of its former self.

The significant concessions made by Hamas since coming close to a ceasefire last May underline its enfeebled state. For months it held out for Israel to pledge a definitive end to hostilities before a deal was signed, and to withdraw forces from Gaza. The current deal under discussion commits Israel to do neither until later rounds of talks.

Though no reliable statistics exist and Hamas has undoubtedly recruited many new fighters, its military arm has been badly degraded by the Israeli onslaught, with most senior and middle-ranking commanders killed. It maintains patchy authority in parts of Gaza but nothing that resembles the 16 years when it completely controlled local government.

In October, Yahya Sinwar, the hardline Hamas leader and mastermind of the 2023 attack that triggered the conflict, died in a clash with Israeli soldiers in Gaza. The then political head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated by Israel while in Tehran. The organisation is now split between a political leadership overseas, who have a more pragmatic approach, and hardliners in Gaza.

But Hamas political leaders outside Gaza recognise the losses suffered, and that they are being held partially responsible by Palestinians for the devastation of Gaza, where more than 46,000 – mostly civilians – have died. This is important for the "day after" the conflict, and how swiftly Hamas can recover, if it can at all.