and there has been a similar wealth of informed speculation about how he can fill the estimated £60bn gap in the UK's public finances in next week's autumn statement.
With much fiscal misery
expected, there is a benefit for Sunak and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, in floating possible options to gauge the reaction - though some never make the cut. Here are some of the ideas on the table and the likelihood of their being implemented.
Stealth tax increases Perhaps the easiest tax rise a government can make: fail to upgrade tax band thresholds by inflation, or at all, and you have a near-magic tax rise that could run into the billions. The most likely is for income tax thresholds, which will bring the greatest extra income. Other levies forecast to be subject to "fiscal drag", as it is also known, are inheritance tax, capital gains tax and dividend tax relief.
Political impact Would not be popular with low-tax Tories, but after the implosion of Liz Truss's fiscal plan there is more tolerance than normal for such ideas.
Fiscal impact Freezing the inheritance tax "nil-rate band" would raise an extra £500m in 202728. But the big money is from wage rises: £30bn should Hunt extend a freeze on income tax bands.
Likelihood: 4/5
Cuts to capital spending Cancelling or trimming big projects means you can save billions with a few taps of the keyboard. And you are getting rid of something that does not yet exist, so could be easily forgotten by voters. Projects reportedly in the crosshairs include the Sizewell C nuclear power station and elements of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail.
Political impact: Potentially toxic, especially the wrath of MPs whose areas are affected, who will argue that long-term growth and productivity will be damaged.
This story is from the November 12, 2022 edition of The Guardian.
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This story is from the November 12, 2022 edition of The Guardian.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
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