
All Street is really worried about bonds. It might be time to buy some.
On Friday, a jobs report that blew past expectations pushed yields on 10-year Treasurys to 4.772%, the highest close since Nov. 1, 2023, and those on 30-year paper to 4.962%.
What is spooking markets, however, is that much of the recent rise in yields doesn't appear to reflect expectations of stronger economic growth. Rather, it might be the result of investors applying a higher discount or "term premium" to hold long-term bonds, estimates by the Federal Reserve suggest. Some analysts attribute this to the possibility of Donald Trump's promised tariffs derailing the global economy and leading to a jump in inflation, while his tax cuts bloat budget deficits further. Movements in term premiums are usually strongly correlated across the globe, and the consequences are being felt more starkly in weaker economies overseas, especially in Britain. There, 30-year yields are trading around 5.4%, a 27-year high. U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, who has made a public pledge to appease bond markets while also attempting to set out some moderate growth ambitions in her latest budget, is under strong pressure.
This story is from the January 13, 2025 edition of Mint Mumbai.
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This story is from the January 13, 2025 edition of Mint Mumbai.
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