Not possible to predict 'big quake': Geologists

They also have a simple piece of advice for people: Don’t panic.

- Jayashree Nandi and Abhishek Jha

That the Himalayan region, including northern India, will see a big earthquake is something experts have known for many years — but they have always maintained that it will be impossible to predict whether this could come next week, or 30 years hence, or perhaps ever.

Indeed, whether Tuesday’s earthquake, the tremors of which were felt in India, Pakistan, large parts of Central Asia including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan was the big, once-in-a-100-year earthquake expected in the Himalayan region, or a precursor of one, is not only impossible to say but also unethical to speculate on, geologists said on Wednesday.

“One argument will be that there are multiple powerful earthquakes in the region so the place is releasing energy slowly and hence hereafter a large earthquake is not expected. Another group can argue that the region is releasing energy gradually and hence we can expect a more powerful earthquake in future. Who can tell? So, these are absolutely vague things and we should not panic over these issues,” said M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.

Data from the National Center for Seismology shows that there have been at least three earthquakes of a magnitude of 6.6 (the magnitude of the earthquake in Afghanistan) or higher since 2013 in the Himalayan region (HT analysed data for the rectangular region covering 26-37 degree North and 72-90 degree East from the National Center for Seismology. This is a rectangle, with one pair of sides parallel to the equator, that runs roughly from Ladakh in the north to Assam in the east. It also covers Nepal and parts of China).