World Will Breach 1.5°C by Sept 2029 If Trend Continues

The world could cross the 1.5°C long-term global warming threshold by September 2029 if current warming trends continue, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Thursday, a timeline that is significantly sooner than the "early 2030s" projection that was widely agreed upon by scientists.

- Jayashree Nandi

NEW DELHI:

Ambient temperatures have already reached 1.38°C above pre-industrial levels, the service known as C3S reported.

"The C3S global temperature trend monitor, based on #ERA5, allows you to explore how the estimate of the time to 1.5°C global warming has changed in recent years. While it should not be interpreted as a forecast, it does show trends in global warming," C3S wrote on X, referring to steep warming trends since the 2000s and attaching a graph that showed the point at which the current trend would surpass the crucial threshold.

The service, known as C3S, reported that global warming already reached 1.38 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in February 2025.

The 1.5-degree threshold was at the heart of the landmark 2016 Paris climate deal—now itself in jeopardy since the US under new president Donald Trump withdrew from it. Breaching the 1.5-degree threshold represents a critical turning point for the planet, after which climate impacts become significantly more severe and widespread. At 1.5 degrees of warming, about 14% of Earth's population would be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every five years, while at 2 degrees, this proportion would more than double to 37% of the population.