हाल के पांच राज्यों के चुनाव में कांग्रेस इकलौते तेलंगाना से राहत का दमदार जनादेश हासिल कर पाई। इसी के साथ विंध्य के दक्षिण, दक्कन के पठार में लंबे अरसे बाद कोई रेड्डी ऊंची कुर्सी पर पहुंचा। अविभाजित आंध्र प्रदेश में प्रभावशाली रेड्डी समुदाय का कमोबेश सत्ता में दबदबा रहा है। 2014 में नवगठित तेलंगाना में दशक भर बाद कांग्रेस के प्रदेश अध्यक्ष, अपेक्षाकृत युवा 54 वर्षीय अनुमुला रेवंत रेड्डी को कमान मिली। दावेदार तो उत्तम कुमार रेड्डी और भट्टी विक्रमार्का जैसे कई पुराने नेता थे लेकिन कर्नाटक के उप-मुख्यमंत्री डी. के. शिवकुमार की सरपरस्ती और प्रदेश में पिछले साल भर से अपनी पदयात्राओं से बेजान-सी पार्टी में जोश जगाने वाले रेवंत पर आलाकमान की सुई आ टिकी। हालांकि आंध्र प्रदेश से अलग तेलंगाना राज्य के लिए आंदोलन से उभरी तेलंगाना राष्ट्र समिति ( अब भारत राष्ट्र समिति) के मुखिया, पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री के. चंद्रशेखर राव नतीजे के दो दिन पहले बाहर जा रहे अपने एक ओएसडी से कह रहे थे, तेलंगाना की जनता मुझे धोखा नहीं देगी, बेफिक्र होकर जाओ, शपथ ग्रहण के दिन लौट आना। चंद्रशेखर राव इन चुनावों में 'हैट्रिक' लगाकर&nbsp;राष्ट्रीय मंच पर नमूदार होने की उम्मीद कर रहे थे। इसी वजह से पार्टी का नाम बदलकर बीआरएस रखा गया था। वे गैर-भाजपा, गैर-कांग्रेस तीसरा मोर्चा बनाने के लिए तमाम विपक्षी क्षत्रपों और मुख्यमंत्रियों की बैठकें भी आयोजित कर चुके थे। लेकिन ईवीएम से निकले जनादेश के आंकड़े धोखा दे गए (देखें, चार्ट)।
ग्रेटर हैदराबाद में तो कुल 25 सीटों में बीआरएस और एआइएमआइएम का दबदबा कायम रहा। 16 बीआरएस को 7 एआइएमआइएम को मिलीं। कांग्रेस और भाजपा को 1-1 सीटें ही मिलीं। कांग्रेस की जीत दरअसल उत्तर और दक्षिण तेलंगाना में शानदार प्रदर्शन का नतीजा है। भाजपा की झोली में भी ज्यादातर 7 सीटें उत्तर तेलंगाना से ही पड़ीं। सीएसडीएस-लोकनीति के चुनाव बाद सर्वेक्षण के मुताबिक कांग्रेस को प्रभावशाली रेड्डी समुदाय का 50 प्रतिशत वोट के अलावा यादवों और अनुसूचित जनजाति के एक तबके (लंबादी) के अलावा मुस्लिम आबादी के करीब एक-तिहाई वोट मिले। दक्षिण में उसे कम्मा और दूसरी ओबीसी जातियों के भी वोट मिले। बीआरएस को गैर-रेड्डी ऊंची जातियों, अनुसूचित जनजातियों, और अनुसूचित जनजातियों के एक तबके (लंबादी को छोड़कर) के अलावा एक-तिहाई मुस्लिम वोट हासिल होने का अनुमान है।
दरअसल चंद्रशेखर राव को अपनी कल्याणकारी योजनाओं खासकर कल्याण लक्ष्मी, रायतु बंधु, आरोग्यश्री, पेंशन वगैरह पर काफी भरोसा था, और सीएसडीएस सर्वेक्षण की मानें तो लगभग दो-तिहाई लोग बीआरएस सरकार के कामकज से संतुष्ट भी थे। राव को इस पर इतना भरोसा था कि उन्होंने अपने उम्मीदवार नहीं बदले, जबकि तकरीबन 40 विधायकों के खिलाफ भारी एंटी-इन्कंबेंसी थी। लेकिन भ्रष्टाचार और भाईभतीजावाद के साथ भाजपा से मिलिभगत का नैरेटिव शायद भारी पड़ा। कांग्रेस ने अपने पूरे प्रचार अभियान में इसी को ज्यादा तूल दिया। कांग्रेस को पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री राजशेखर रेड्डी की बेटी एसवाइ शर्मिला के समर्थन से भी मदद मिली। शर्मिला की पार्टी के साथ-साथ तेलुगु देशम पार्टी ने भी कांग्रेस के लिए मैदान छोड़ दिया था। दूसरे उत्तर में उसे कर्नाटक से लगे इलाकों में भी कर्नाटक कांग्रेस सरकार की उपलब्धियों से जुड़े नैरेटिव का भी लाभ मिला। कांग्रेस यह नैरेटिव भी फैलाने में कामयाब रही कि तेलंगाना का गठन तो सोनिया गांधी के प्रयासों से हुआ था, जिसका फायदा चंद्रशेखर राव उठा ले गए।
बहरहाल, अब बहुत कुछ इस पर निर्भर करेगा कि कांग्रेस की सरकार कैसा कामकाज कर पाती है। राज्य की माली हालत खस्ता है, इसलिए उसे अपनी गारंटियां निभाने में भी मुश्किल पेश आ सकती है। कांग्रेस की परीक्षा की घड़ी भी नजदीक है, क्योंकि अगले साल के आम चुनावों में राज्य की ज्यादातर संसदीय सीटों पर जीत हासिल करने की चुनौती उसके सामने है। कांग्रेस दक्षिण में तेलंगाना और कर्नाटक में ज्यादा सीटें हासिल कर लोकसभा में अपनी संख्या में इजाफा कर सकती है।

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