India has already recovered from Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war. But India should acknowledge that its growth was on down-hill after 2016-17. During 2017-23, growth was barely 4.47 per cent on CAGR basis. In 2023-24, growth-target of 6.5 per cent might be difficult without reducing Trade-deficit (goods & services) to below 2 per cent of GDP which was 3.7 per cent in 2022-23. Trade deficit (net-import) is a direct loss of GDP.
Considering SWOT analysis, Indian Economy is at its turning point. India has latent growth potential of 8-10 per cent for two to three decades and become third largest economy. But the complacency might gradually result in a new normal growth-rate of 5 per cent in future, somewhat similar to pre-1991 era. That India cannot afford.
India is largest democracy. Its democratic institutions craft confidence among global-investors which is its biggest strength. It has large workforce of talented and educated youths and many of them have entrepreneurial skill. That is another big strength. Currently, Labour Participation Ratio (LPR) has slipped below 40 per cent; that must be restored to 2011 level at 52.9 per cent and gradually increased to 65 per cent plus as per global norms. Rising trade-deficit, depreciating rupee, slow-moving manufacturing, sluggish MSME, non-remunerative agriculture and inadequate infrastructures are crucial weaknesses.
This story is from the August 2023 edition of Indian Economy & Market.
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This story is from the August 2023 edition of Indian Economy & Market.
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