CY22 has been a year of macro uncertainty and volatility, and there are concerns that it could be a 2008 redux. What is your view?
Ashish Kehair, MD & CEO, Nuvama Wealth Management: There is a clear divergence of trends. Growth is visible on the ground, even client interactions reveal a positive sentiment. Credit growth is picking up as well. Yet, given the inflationary concerns, global recession, troubles in the Eurozone, this is not a market where you can be all-in because you don’t know how it will play out. The view on inflation has gone from transient to sticky, and we are now talking about recession. So, it will impact flows as interest rates are at unprecedented high levels. While I don’t see a repeat of 2008 when the indices more than halved, I don’t foresee the market going up in a hurry either.
Anirudha Taparia, co-founder & joint CEO, 360 ONE Wealth: Yes, it has been an unprecedented year with all the macro uncertainties at play. Going into the new year and 2024, it will all boil down to two things: How worldwide economies tackle inflation and, second, the interest rate trajectory.
Ashish Gumashta, executive chairman, Julius Baer India: Clearly, the U.S Fed’s rate hikes have exported unprecedented volatility across bond, equity and currency markets. Volatility is usually followed by shrinking of liquidity and we are already seeing challenges around refinancing. In India, too, interest rates have risen quite fast. Borrowing costs have gone up significantly over the past one year with five-year G-Sec now at 7.13%-plus. It’s time to be cautious on equities. With yields becoming attractive, investors can start looking at fixed income.
This story is from the January 2023 edition of Fortune India.
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This story is from the January 2023 edition of Fortune India.
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