For Quad, Good News On China

Why Moscow’s adventurism has shown Beijing’s influence in world order is overhyped

- Probal Dasgupta

Quad leaders met in Tokyo even as the war in Ukraine raged on. For Quad countries, whose principal concern is China, the key takeaway is that Beijing’s domination dreams look less credible given its unsureness after Moscow’s invasion.

2022 was meant to accelerate China’s ambitions as Xi Jinping’s New Year address rang ominous portents: “The complete reunification of our motherland is an aspiration shared by people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.” Three weeks before the Ukraine war, Russia and China inked a joint statement of mutual support that underwrote Xi’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine in exchange for Vladimir Putin’s support to China on Taiwan.

It appears now that China prematurely bought into Russia’s belief that the war would be a quick one. When Putin launched the invasion, the assumption was that Ukraine could fold in a week. That outcome would have brought to the foreground the helplessness of the US and Nato, set the template for China’s reunification plans with Taiwan, and further enhanced the growing clout of China as a world power. But none of that happened.