Peace talks may be little more than Russian tactics, analysts say

As envoys made progress in peace talks on Tuesday, Russia offered concessions that signalled a more realistic course for the war in Ukraine, while indicating it is also in no hurry to end the conflict, according to diplomats and analysts.

BRUSSELS

Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin presented the decision to “sharply reduce” military activity around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv as a gesture “to increase mutual trust for future negotiations”.

But the Russian advance in the north had already stalled, with troops around Kyiv taking up defensive positions in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks there and near Sumy, where Russia has been having trouble encircling the main Ukrainian army east of the Dnieper River.

“De-escalation is a euphemism for retreat,” said emeritus professor of war studies Lawrence Freedman at King’s College London. “Russia is adjusting its goals to reality, because war is quite empirical,” he said. “It’s not a ruse to say that they are concentrating on the Donbass, because in reality that’s all they can do.”

But retreat is hardly surrender, and others cautioned that the progress made on Tuesday doesn’t mean that Russia is ready for serious discussions on ending the war. That would require a better outcome for President Vladimir Putin of Russia to sell at home as a victory.

On Tuesday, the Ukrainians outlined a 15-year process of negotiations about the status of Crimea, and said that control of the Donbass region could be discussed in meetings between Mr Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. Russia has said it would set a meeting between the two presidents only once a draft peace agreement was ready.