DECODING THE ELECTION RESULTS OF MANIPUR

While the generalisation of the five poll results are understandable, one should realise that each were fought and won on different issues and using varied strategies

-  PRADIP PHANJOUBAM

THERE is an understandable tendency among analysts to generalise the results of recent elections in five states as a forecast for a sweep of the 2024 parliamentary election by the Bharatiya Janata Party. While this assumption appears natural, there are reasons for the winners not to be complacent and those who lost not to despair, for each of the five elections were fought and won on different issues and by varied strategies. At least this is stark in the case of Manipur where the BJP emerged with a clear but thin majority of 32 in a house of 60.

The average number of voters in each of Manipur’s 60 constituencies is about 35,000 and the average winning margin is generally 3,000 to 6,000 votes depending on whether the contest is a straight fight or multi-cornered. This time, however, 22 of the victories had margins of less than 1,000 votes and 12 of these were of BJP candidates.

Furthermore, nine victories were by margins of less than 500 votes and of these, eight were of the BJP. In one constituency, Wabagai, Kakching district, the BJP candidate beat his Congress rival by just 50 votes. In Lamlai constituency, Imphal East, the BJP nipped Janata Dal (United) by 121 votes and in Lamsang, Imphal West, the BJP trailed National People’s Party all the way but surged ahead when postal ballots were counted to win by 400 votes. But this is first past the post system, where a victory by one vote is as good as by several thousands. However, what is clear is, there is nothing in this result to say the winners have eliminated all serious future electoral challenges.