Omicron threat is unknown until new year, advisers say

The true threat posed by the omicron coronavirus variant is unlikely to be determined until the turn of the new year, scientific advisers to the government have warned.

- SAMUEL LOVETT 

Experts from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) believe “the worse the problem is going to be, the earlier we will know” – but it’s expected to take a month before data indicates whether omicron will drive a surge in hospitalisations among the vaccinated.

More than 40 cases have now been detected in the UK, but analysis suggests the real figure may be much higher, amid concern that holes in the country’s Covid testing network could lead to an underreporting of omicron infections.

The World Health Organisation has said lab-based information on the transmissibility of the variant will be available “within days”, but this will not provide a full picture of how vaccine acquired or natural immunity is diminished by omicron, or to what extent.

Members of SPI-M, a sub-committee of Sage, have said officials in the UK and beyond will likely know in a minimum of four weeks whether omicron, which has acquired a high number of concerning mutations, is bypassing pre-existing immunity in people and forcing them into hospital.

“If we don’t see a sharp rise in [omicron-positive] cases or hospitalisations in the next four to six weeks, then we can start to relax,” said Matt Keeling, a professor of mathematics and life sciences at the University of Warwick and SPI-M expert.