Peace Between the Nations Is Far Off but A Ceasefire Is Realistic
Will the Ukraine war end in 2023? It's impossible to imagine a handshake between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin, suggesting that a negotiated peace between Ukraine and Russia after 10 months of hard fighting and tens of thousands of casualties on both sides is a long way off.
Ukraine is demanding the creation of a war crimes court for the Russian leadership and reparations from the Kremlin, as well as the restoration of its entire territory. None of this will be conceded by Moscow, which is never going to be faced with a 1945-style total defeat.
A more realistic endpoint would be a military ceasefire, in which two increasingly exhausted combatants see frontline positions harden around a line of control, in effect a repeat of what happened after the fighting of 2014, without the veneer of the previous Minsk peace agreements.
On the current frontlines, or something similar, that would suit Russia, which seeks time to regenerate its shattered military and incorporate the territory. But it would not suit Ukraine.
The incentive is on Ukraine to probe for weaknesses and try to attack, and its opportunity starts now, in the depths of winter, when the ground is frozen.
Although Kyiv warns of Russian counterattacks, Moscow's efforts are more likely to be limited, even diversionary, probably focused on the Donbas, where it has been on the attack, often ineffectively, since April.
The key point will come when it appears Ukraine's offensive potential is exhausted.
That will become clearer by the summer or autumn, and will at some point prompt a question for its western backers: how long should the west continue supplying military aid at current levels to Ukraine?
ENERGY CRISIS
This story is from the January 06, 2023 edition of The Guardian Weekly.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the January 06, 2023 edition of The Guardian Weekly.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
Is Paris Ready To Embrace Its Olympic Moment?
In a live television interview from Paris’s Grand Palais – the centrepiece of this year’s Olympic Games, which open on 26 July – Emmanuel Macron set out his ambitions for the country’s athletes in much the same way he might outline a political manifesto.
Can Britons Learn To Love The Idea Of The 'Nanny State'?
Despite detractors, Rishi Sunak’s tobacco bill shows the public will support policies that would once have been thought draconian
Battle Ready How Might New US Aid Change The War?
After months of stalling, the US House of Representatives last weekend approved more than $61bn of military assistance to help Ukraine in its fight against Russia, as well as billions for other allies including Israel and Taiwan.
What are the rules of thumb for buying a quality kitchen knife?
I need anew chef’s knife any recommendations? Nothing too expensive, though.
Keep it reel Clubs drive a celluloid resurgence
A ballooning number of groups dedicated to cinema in its original medium are springing up across the UK. They explain its thrills and challenges
I'm begging world leaders to raise taxes for rich people like me
The need to tax rich people like me has never been so dire. Extreme wealth concentration in the hands of a few oligarchs is a threat to democracy the world over.
Troubled waters
In an unprecedented deal, a private company bought land in an Arizona town - and sold its water rights to a suburb 300km away. Have the floodgates opened for US corporations to cash in on drought?
Melania is back-but she's still not playing by the rules
Her biggest fashion statement as first lady was a green jacket emblazoned with the words, “I really don’t care, do u?” More recently Melania Trump has given the impression that she doesn’t care whether her husband, Donald, returns to the White House. That is about to change.
Poll prejudice In a big voting year, where are all the female candidates?
With more people set to vote in elections than at any time in history, 2024 is being touted as a test of democracies’ strength around the world. But one thing remains in noticeably short supply – female leadership candidates.
The man who helped scores to flee violence in Darfur
Every night, for weeks at a time last year, Saad al-Mukhtar put a small group of people in the back of his Toyota Land Cruiser and drove them under the cover of darkness from his home in the Sudanese city of Geneina across the border and into Chad.
