Cyclone In Arabian Sea Puts Cloud Over Monsoon Progress

Its name may have "joy" in it, but it actually means calamity in Bengali, which is apt because Cyclone Biprajoy, which developed in the Arabian Sea, may adversely affect the monsoon, which is already delayed this year.

- Jayashree Nandi

"Biparjoy is not good for our monsoon because it is pulling all the moisture along with it away from the Indian coast. Its formation is not near the India coast and hence monsoon's progress will remain very poor until around June 12. It may strengthen the cross-equitorial flow after the cyclone dissipates, but that's a long way away. We are closely monitoring onset conditions over Kerala but cloud cover has reduced owing to the rapidly intensifying deep depression over Arabian Sea. Its intensity will most definitely reach very severe cyclone phase. We are still hoping onset happens soon," said a senior IMD official who did not wish to be named.

In a statement, IMD admitted that the system is "likely to influence the monsoon progress", although it stated that an update would follow on Wednesday.

To be sure, the date of the monsoon's onset is not correlated with its performance, although the emergence of an El Nino phenomenon (warm currents in the equatorial monsoons) is a Pacific Ocean which is correlated with poor matter of concern. IMD has predicted a normal monsoon with rainfall that is 96% of the long period average. This is at the lower end of the normal category. According to India's agriculture ministry, almost half of India's farmed area, accounting for around 40% of production, is rain-fed, making the monsoon critical. With 47% of the country's population dependant on agriculture for their livelihood (according to this year's Economic Survey), a bountiful monsoon has a direct correlation with a healthy rural economy.