Freedom Will Taste Sweeter If We Wait Just A Little Longer

The best way to understand the thinking behind the Prime Minister’s confirmation yesterday that “Freedom Day” is being postponed is to think about marshmallows.

- Stephen Pollard

Bear with me.

In a psychology experiment in 1972, children were offered a choice between a marshmallow to eat on the spot, or two marshmallows if they were willing to wait. Researchers then tracked the children over time. Those who were willing to wait for their reward had better outcomes on almost every measure of education and health.

The parallel is, of course, far from exact – no one died as a result of not waiting for more marshmallows, whereas if we do not delay easing the last Covid restrictions, people will. But the relevant point is that, however tempting it may be to take the immediate reward, it makes more sense to wait.

The evidence suggests that most people grasp this. The latest poll, by Opinium, found that 54 per cent of us agree that it is better to postpone easing, with only 37 per cent against.

Perhaps that’s because people listened to the Prime Minister when he first set out the roadmap out of lockdown. The phrase he used then, and which ministers have repeated, is that the timing of the different stages of easing would be driven by data, not dates.

IN OTHER words, much as we all wanted June 21 to be the date for the final stage, it was never more than a target.