A year after the insurrection, I’m trying to imagine the death of American democracy. It’s somehow easier to picture the Earth blasted and bleached by global warming, or the human brain overtaken by the tyranny of artificial intelligence, than to foresee the end of our 250-year experiment in self-government.
The usual scenarios are unconvincing. The country is not going to split into two hostile sections and fight a war of secession. No dictator will send his secret police to round up dissidents in the dead of night. Analogies like these bring the comfort of at least being familiar. Nothing has aided Donald Trump more than Americans’ failure of imagination. It’s essential to picture an un precedented future so that what may seem impossible doesn’t become inevitable.
Before January 6, no one—including intelligence professionals— could have conceived of a president provoking his followers to smash up the Capitol. Even the rioters livestreaming in National Statuary Hall seemed stunned by what they were doing. The siege felt like a wild shot that could have been fatal. For a nanosecond, shocked politicians of both parties sang together from the hymnal of democracy. But the unity didn’t last. The past months have made it clear that the near miss was a warning shot.
If the end comes, it will come through democracy itself. Here’s one way I imagine it could happen: In 2024, disputed election results in several states lead to tangled proceedings in courtrooms and legislatures. The Republican Party’s long campaign of undermining faith in elections leaves voters on both sides deeply skeptical of any outcome they don’t like. When the next president is finally chosen by the Supreme Court or Congress, half the country explodes in rage. Protests soon turn violent, and the crowds are met with lethal force by the state, while instigators firebomb government buildings. Neighborhoods organize self-defense groups, and law enforcement officers take sides or go home. Predominantly red or blue counties turn on political minorities. A family with a Biden-Harris sign has to abandon their home on a rural road and flee to the nearest town. A blue militia sacks Trump National Golf Club Bedminster; a red militia storms Oberlin College. The new president takes power in a state of siege.
Few people would choose this path. It’s the kind of calamity into which fragile societies stumble when their leaders are reckless, selfish, and shortsighted. But some Americans actually long for an armed showdown. In an article for the Claremont Review of Books imagining how the cultural conflict between blue California and red Texas might play out, Michael Anton, a former Trump White House adviser, recently wrote:
If the Lone Star way of life is to survive, Texans must fight for it. Then we shall see whether California’s long experiment with postmodern deracination and antimasculinity can stand up to Texas’s more robust embrace of the old virtues. I’m not a betting man, but were that conflict to erupt, my money would be on Texas.
Imagining the worst is a civic duty; cheering it on is political arson.
Another, likelier scenario is widespread cynicism. Following the election crisis, protests burn out. Americans lapse into acquiescence, believing that all leaders lie, all voting is rigged, all media are bought, corruption is normal, and any appeal to higher values such as freedom and equality is either fraudulent or naive. The loss of democracy turns out not to matter all that much. The hollowed core of civic life brings a kind of relief. Citizens indulge themselves in self-care and the metaverse, where politics turns into a private game and algorithms drive Americans into ever more extreme views that have little relation to reality or relevance to those in power. There’s enough wealth to keep the population content. America’s transformation into Russia is complete.
Continue reading your story on the app
Continue reading your story in the magazine
The Shadow Royals
Across Europe, the descendants of dethroned monarchs believe they have something to offer in the 21st Century
Change the Map, Change the Moral
A global view of World War II turns a battle for freedom into a battle for empire.
HOW POLITICS POISONED THE CHURCH
THE EVANGELICAL MOVEMENT SPENT 40 YEARS AT WAR WITH SECULAR AMERICA. NOW IT'S AT WAR WITH ITSELF.
Chasing Joan Didion
I visited the writer's California homes, from Berkeley to Malibu. What was looking for?
Can Forensic Science Be Trusted?
The story of a forensic analyst in Ohio, whose findings in multiple cases have been called into question, reveals the systemic flaws in American crime labs.
Blaming Our Inner Ape
Humans love to pin retrograde gender dynamics on our primate cousins. Is that fair?
Fox News Does Late Night
Greg Gutfeld has owned the libs all the way to the top of the ratings
The Defiant Strangeness of Werner Herzog
The director brings his signature theme adventurers who share his quixotic compulsions—to his debut novel.
“THEY'RE NOT HUMAN BEINGS”
Ukraine and the words that lead to mass murder
Tracy Flick for Principal
Tom Perrotta's '90s antihero returns.